Separating Facts From Assumptions
The hardest part of first-principles work is noticing what you're treating as a fact when it's actually an inherited belief. Here's how to spot the difference.
#thinking
What counts as a fact
- It can be measured or directly observed.
- It would still be true if every competitor disappeared tomorrow.
- You can point to the source, not just the conventional wisdom.
- Reversing it produces an obviously wrong outcome, not just an unfamiliar one.
Common 'facts' that are actually assumptions
- 'Customers want this feature' , usually means a few loud customers asked.
- 'The market is X billion dollars' , usually a top-down analyst report, not your reachable market.
- 'We need a sales team' , usually means the founder doesn't want to sell anymore.
- 'Investors expect Y' , usually one investor's preference generalized.
Write down every claim driving a decision. Mark each one as Fact, Assumption, or Inherited Belief. You'll be shocked how few facts you have.